民机项目风险量化方法及应用的研究

Risk Quantification Methods and Application of Civil Aircraft Project

摘要:

民机项目中大量新技术的应用和众多复杂系统的集成,增加了项目进度、费用和性能的不确定性,在众多环节中风险因子要素层出不穷。为了保障民机项目过程的顺利进行,降低项目的风险水平,必须建立先进的风险管理体系。针对民机项目风险管理体系中的风险量化难题,深入挖掘风险量化手段本身的技术内涵,结合民机项目的特点,引入了模糊层次分析法的风险量化方法,并通过民机项目风险实例进行验证。

Abstract:

Civil aircraft projects include application of a large number of new technologies and integration of many complex systems. The uncertainty on project schedule targets, cost targets and performance targets is increased. In many aspects, the risk factors have been increasing. In order to ensure the research process of civil aircraft programs smoothly and reduce the projects risk level, an advanced risk management system must be established. For the risk quantification problem on risk management system of civil aircraft project, this article explores the technical content of risk quantitative measures, combining the characteristics of civil aircraft projects. The risk quantification method of Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process was introduced and verified by risk instance of civil aircraft project.